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第6章：通货膨胀和货币政策——英国的货币政策
What is monetary policy?什么是货币政策？
Although monetary policy can be used to affect many things, the main objective of monetary policy is the control of inflation.
The current target for inflation set by the government is 2.5% (using the RPIX measure), although it is allowed to deviate 1.5% either way (so the allowable band is 1% - 4%).
虽然货币政策可以用来影响很多事情，但货币政策的主要目标是控制通货膨胀。政府设定的当前通胀目标是 2.5%（使用 RPIX 衡量标准），尽管它允许以任何方式偏离 1.5%（因此允许范围为 1% - 4%）。
Ever since the UK fell out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in September 1992, UK monetary policy has involved using interest rates to control the level of inflation.
自从英国于 1992 年 9 月退出汇率机制 (ERM)以来，英国的货币政策一直涉及使用利率来控制通货膨胀水平。
It has not always been this way. As the term 'monetary' suggests, another form of monetary policy is the control of the money supply.
It was believed that by controlling the money supply the price level would be controlled as well.
This was the main method used to control inflation during the Thatcher's 'monetarist experiment' of the early 80s.
它并不总是这样。正如“货币”一词所暗示的那样，另一种形式的货币政策是控制货币供应量。人们相信，通过控制货币供应量，价格水平也会得到控制。这是 80 年代初期撒切尔夫人的“货币主义实验”中控制通货膨胀的主要方法。
There are very close links between the rate of interest, the money supply and the exchange rate.
At times when the UK has been tied to a fixed exchange rate system (like the Bretton Woods system after the Second World War, and, more recently, the ERM), both the rate of interest and the supply of money have to be adjusted to maintain the goal of the fixed exchange rate.
When the UK was part of the ERM from 1990 to 1992, the UK government effectively lost control of interest rates and, to a certain extent, the supply of money.
利率、货币供应量和汇率之间有着非常密切的联系。有时，当英国与固定汇率制度挂钩时（如二战后的布雷顿森林体系，以及最近的 ERM），利率和货币供应量都必须调整为维持固定汇率的目标。当英国从 1990 年到 1992 年加入 ERM 时，英国政府实际上失去了对利率的控制，在一定程度上也失去了货币供应。
So, a government's monetary policy consists of the control of interest rates, the money supply or the exchange rate. It is difficult to control two or more of these things at once.
因此，政府的货币政策包括对利率、货币供应量或汇率的控制。很难同时控制其中的两个或多个。
UK monetary policy - from 'Thatcher's experiment' to the ERM
英国货币政策——从“撒切尔实验”到 ERM
The policy of controlling the money supply of the early 80s did not quite work as intended. Nigel Lawson, the Chancellor at the time, decided to 'shadow' the Deutschmark (DM).
From 1987, he decided that the UK should 'pretend' to be in the ERM. The idea of fixing the £ to the DM was that inflationary devaluations would not be possible, so inflation should be kept under control.
Also, as industry could not rely on a fall in the value of the £ to restore competitiveness, they would simply have to become more efficient.
The higher value of the £ would impose discipline on UK industry, and hopefully UK inflation would be forced down to the level of Germany's.
80 年代初控制货币供应的政策并没有达到预期的效果。当时的财政大臣奈杰尔·劳森（Nigel Lawson）决定“遮蔽”德国马克（DM）。从 1987 年起，他决定英国应该“假装”加入 ERM。将英镑固定在德国马克的想法是，通胀性贬值是不可能的，因此应该控制通胀。此外，由于工业不能依靠英镑贬值来恢复竞争力，它们只需要变得更有效率。更高的英镑价值将对英国工业施加纪律，并希望英国的通货膨胀将被迫降至德国的水平。
Of course, in the late 80s, the consumer boom out-weighed any deflationary effects of a stronger £. Inflation rose and interest rates rose to 15%.
Did the UK have a monetary policy based on the exchange rate or interest rates?
Thatcher wanted to use interest rates. Her belief in markets made it hard for her to accept controls on the value of the £ (exchange rates are determined in currency markets after all).
For various political reasons, though, her hand was forced and the UK joined the ERM in October 1990.
当然，在 80 年代后期，消费热潮超过了英镑走强带来的任何通缩效应。通货膨胀上升，利率上升到 15%。英国是否有基于汇率或利率的货币政策？撒切尔想使用利率。她对市场的信念使她很难接受对英镑价值的控制（毕竟汇率是由货币市场决定的）。然而，由于各种政治原因，她的手是被迫的，英国于 1990 年 10 月加入了 ERM。
The £ was now officially fixed against nearly all of Europe's currencies (although its value was allowed to adjust by 6% - it was not a totally fixed exchange rate system).
The UK government effectively had no control over their rate of interest. If Germany changed their interest rates, the UK soon followed, otherwise the value of the £ would change. Although nominal UK interest rates fell, real interest rates stayed very high, which was disastrous given that the economy was in a deep recession.
The value of the £ was too high. The government knew it and the markets knew it.
For most of 1992, the £ was at the bottom of the allowed band within the ERM. The markets were selling the £ and the only buyer was the UK government!
英镑现在正式固定在几乎所有欧洲货币的汇率上（尽管它的价值可以调整 6%——这不是一个完全固定的汇率体系）。英国政府实际上无法控制他们的利率。如果德国改变利率，英国很快就会跟进，否则英镑的价值就会改变。尽管英国名义利率下降，但实际利率仍然很高，鉴于经济处于深度衰退中，这是灾难性的。英镑的价值太高了。政府知道，市场也知道。在 1992 年的大部分时间里，英镑处于 ERM 允许范围的底部。市场正在出售英镑，唯一的买家是英国政府！
Eventually the pressure was too much. Having spent billions of pounds supporting the £, on the 16th September 1992 the Chancellor raised interest rates from 10% to 12% at lunchtime (a huge rise given today's quarter point changes).
The markets laughed, saw it as a sign of weakness and just kept selling. Rates were raised again on the same day to 15%, to take effect the following morning.
The selling continued. The UK government threw in the towel and pulled out of the ERM. The £ instantly devalued by 15%.
Interest rates went back down to 10% (the same rate as that morning!).
The government had lost billions of pounds. This day was known as 'Black Wednesday' although many economists now refer to it as 'White Wednesday' because from that day onwards, interest rates were able to fall further, the value of the £ was much lower and the economy began to recover.
For some, the 16th September 1992 was the last day of the 1990-2 recession.
最后压力太大了。花费数十亿英镑支持英镑，16日1992 年 9 月，财政大臣在午餐时间将利率从 10% 提高到 12%（考虑到今天的 25 点变化，这是一个巨大的上升）。市场笑了，将其视为疲软的迹象，并继续抛售。利率在同一天再次提高到 15%，并于次日早上生效。抛售继续。英国政府认输并退出了 ERM。英镑立即贬值了 15%。利率回落至 10%（与那天早上的利率相同！）。政府损失了数十亿英镑。这一天被称为“黑色星期三”，尽管许多经济学家现在将其称为“白色星期三”，因为从那天起，利率能够进一步下降，英镑的价值要低得多，经济开始复苏。对一些人来说，16日1992 年 9 月是 1990-2 年经济衰退的最后一天。
UK monetary policy since the ERM debacle
自 ERM 崩溃以来的英国货币政策
Since 1992, monetary policy has consisted of interest rate changes with a floating £.
The new Chancellor in 1993, Kenneth Clarke, set up a system where he would meet the Governor of the Bank of England once a month and discuss whether interest rates needed to be changed.
Clarke would still make the decisions, but the minutes of these meetings were published.
If Clarke was seen to be disagreeing with the Governor (whose opinion was respected) but did what he wanted anyway, he could be held to account if his decisions were wrong.
As in turned out, ironically, the Chancellor tended to get the decisions right, but most economists agreed that the 'Ken and Eddie show' (Eddie George was the Governor of the Bank of England) was a good system.
自 1992 年以来，货币政策一直包括浮动英镑的利率变化。1993 年的新任财政大臣肯尼斯·克拉克（Kenneth Clarke）建立了一个系统，他每月会见一次英格兰银行行长，讨论是否需要改变利率。克拉克仍然会做出决定，但这些会议的记录已经公布。如果克拉克被认为不同意总督（他的意见受到尊重），但无论如何做了他想做的事，如果他的决定是错误的，他可能会被追究责任。结果具有讽刺意味的是，财政大臣倾向于做出正确的决定，但大多数经济学家都同意“肯和埃迪秀”（埃迪乔治是英格兰银行行长）是一个很好的系统。
Four days after the election of the Labour government in May 1997, the new Chancellor, Gordon Brown, made the Bank of England independent.
This meant that the Chancellor would no longer make the decisions on interest rates.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England was set up.
Although there have been some minor changes along the way, the procedure then is much as it is now.
工党政府于1997年5月选举后的四天，新任总理戈登·布朗（Gordon Brown）使英格兰银行独立。这意味着财政大臣将不再对利率做出决定。英格兰银行货币政策委员会（MPC）成立。尽管在此过程中发生了一些细微的变化，但当时的程序与现在差不多。
There are nine members in the committee.
Five are Bank of England men (including the Governor) and four are independent economists from the real world.
They meet once a month and make a decision that is announced at 12 noon on the first Thursday of every month. Each member has a vote. Should rates go up? Go down?
Stay the same? The votes are counted and the majority wins.
The minutes of the meeting are published before the next vote so that the general public can see how everyone voted.
委员会有九名成员。五位是英格兰银行的人（包括行长），四位是来自现实世界的独立经济学家。他们每月开会一次，并做出决定，并在每个月的第一个星期四中午 12 点宣布。每个成员都有一票。利率应该上涨吗？下去？保持原样？计算选票，多数人获胜。会议纪要在下次投票前公布，以便公众了解每个人的投票情况。
Their only objective (set by the government) is to keep inflation at 2.5%, although the inflation rate is allowed to vary between 1% and 4% (i.e. plus or minus 1.5%).
In other words, if inflation gets too low that is just as bad as if inflation gets too high.
Japan had negative inflation for most of the year 2000, but it didn't do them any good.
If inflation is too low the economy is probably in a deflationary mode, causing unemployment and low growth.
他们唯一的目标（由政府设定）是将通货膨胀率保持在 2.5%，尽管通货膨胀率允许在 1% 和 4% 之间变化（即正负 1.5%）。换句话说，如果通货膨胀变得太低，那和通货膨胀变得太高一样糟糕。日本在 2000 年的大部分时间里都有负通胀，但这并没有给他们带来任何好处。如果通胀过低，经济可能处于通缩模式，导致失业和低增长。
If inflation does go over 4% or under 1% then the Governor of the Bank of England has to write an open letter to the Chancellor to explain what he did wrong.
There is, therefore, some accountability.
如果通货膨胀确实超过 4% 或低于 1%，那么英格兰银行行长必须写一封公开信给财政大臣，解释他做错了什么。因此，有一些责任。
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